Knowledge integration and Management Strategy Evaluation modelling
Kimberly Marine Research Program: Project 2.2.8
Location: See Geographic range below
Project Leader: Fabio Boschetti, CSIRO
Telephone: 9333 6563
In this project we will explore the possible and desired futures of the Kimberly region. We will use two computer models, Ecopath with Ecosim and Alces. What futures we explore will be determined in consultation with stakeholders and interested parties. The result of this study will support key state and local decision-makers.
Why computer models
Meaningful decision-making requires prediction. Without some rough, possibly vague, guess at the consequences of different available decisions, we would have no reason to prefer one decision over another. The important question is what type of prediction best supports decision-making.
We need to study the Kimberley system as a whole, addressing specifically the cumulative effects of various human uses and activities. This is a challenging task. There is a high level of uncertainty about how the Kimberley system works and what future stressors it may undergo. Uncertainty is not the only challenge. The future of the Kimberley system will be determined by the interaction between many forces: the economy, ecological processes, social development, climate change, human population dynamics, resource extraction and many others. Notice that these processes influence one another, leading to potentially very complex dynamics.
For more details click here.
Boschetti F, Lozano-Montes H, Stelfox B. (2020) Modelling regional futures at decadal scale: application to the Kimberley region. Science Reports https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56646-x